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Abstract Fast breakdown (FB), a breakdown process composed of systems of high‐velocity streamers, has been observed to precede lightning leader formation and play a critical role in lightning initiation. Vigorous FB events are responsible for the most powerful natural radio emissions on Earth, known as narrow bipolar events (NBEs). In this paper, an improved version of the Griffiths and Phelps (1976,https://doi.org/10.1029/jc081i021p03671) model of streamer breakdown is used alongside supervised machine learning techniques to probe the required electric fields and potentials inside thunderstorms to produce FB and NBEs. Our results show that the electrostatic conditions needed to produceFB observed in New Mexico at 9 km altitude andFB in Florida at 14 km altitude are about the same, each requiring about 100 MV potential difference to propagate 500 m. Additionally, the model illustrates how electric field enhancement ahead of propagating FB can initiate rebounding FB of the opposite polarity. 

Abstract In this paper we reconstruct Griffiths and Phelps' seminal model of streamer systems to test if it can reproduce the key observational features of fast positive breakdown. We first confirm that our implementation is accurate by reproducing the original results. The model describes how a system of positive streamers exhibits an initial exponential charge growth, as a function of position or time, which rapidly transitions into a quadratic steady state. The charge growth is accompanied by substantial electric field enhancement near the onset location, creating favorable conditions for lightning initiation. Due to the relatively low conductivity of streamers (effectively zero in this model), the electric field enhancement is created by the charge deposited in the first few meters of propagation, in the scale length where the charge growth transitions from exponential to quadratic. The quadratic growth of charge, combined with conical system expansion, makes the surface charge density of the moving front constant. The resulting electric field ahead of the streamer system remains nearly constant during its propagation, consistent with the observations of fast breakdown, which reveal a nearly constant propagation velocity, independently of discharge polarity. Minimal changes to the model allow for simulation of narrow bipolar events, reproducing very well their characteristic bipolar electric field change waveform. Despite its simplicity, the Griffiths and Phelps model provides valuable physical insights in the relationship between fast positive breakdown and lightning initiation.